Afternoon storms in western Pennsylvania could cause flash flooding Tuesday
Scattered storms with brief downpours are likely to lead to some flash flooding and flooding today in the western Pennsylvania area.
While most were given a little bit of a break from the rain on Monday, the risk for flooding remains high with any thunderstorms today. The good news is that flash flood guidance is back up to around an inch-and-a-quarter for an hour and more than an inch-and-a-half for anything longer than three hours.
With the atmospheric setup today, with precipitable water numbers around 1.5 inches, we have ample moisture to work with. Instability is high, but not extreme. Steering winds for storms are light, meaning slow-moving and high precipitation-producing storms should be expected.
This setup won't be going away any time soon, with parts of the area under a marginal risk of severe weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Please remember to turn around and don't go through high water.
When it comes to the forecast today, highs will be dependent on the timing of the first rain. I have us hitting 78 for today's high after we hit 74 degrees yesterday for a high.
As of 4 a.m., there are showers and even a couple of storms rolling through Ohio, but they are expected to weaken and not bring much rain our way before noon. The best chance for seeing rain will be south of I-70, and the further west you are.
If traveling west this morning, you will be driving right into rain showers. A couple of rumbles of thunder are also possible. Humidity levels are in the high range and will remain in the high range through Thursday.
Looking ahead, highs will be in the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday, with the flood risk remaining in place. Unlike today, Wednesday's rain chance looks highest in the morning hours.
Thursday will see afternoon storms as a cold front sweeps through. We briefly get some relief from humidity on Friday, but I have temperatures higher on Friday than on Thursday. Temperatures then turn hot for the rest of the weekend, with highs near 90 Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Heat advisories may be issued next week due to the heat.
