The interest rate climate has shown encouraging signs in 2025, with inflation steadily declining and inching toward the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This progress sparks hope that relief from today's elevated mortgage rates may be on the horizon — especially with the Fed's June meeting approaching and speculation about a rate cut building.

The connection between Fed decisions and mortgage interest rates isn't as straightforward as many assume, however. We spoke with mortgage experts to get their takes on what homebuyers can realistically expect in the coming months. Here's what they want you to know if you're in the market to buy a home.

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Will mortgage rates fall after the Fed's June meeting?

Industry experts don't expect meaningful mortgage rate relief right after the Federal Reserve's June meeting. One key reason is that mortgage rates don't move in direct correlation with Fed policy changes. They track more closely with the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been hovering around 4.5% to 5%.

"[Mortgage rates] tend to move based on broader economic signals. Inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, and the job market remains solid, so there's no urgent push for the Fed to cut rates," explains Steven Glick, director of mortgage sales at HomeAbroad, a real estate investment fintech company. "But [if] we do see a cut, maybe a quarter-point in July or September … possibly from 6.8% to around 6.5% or 6.6% for a 30-year-fixed [mortgage]."

Employment remains a key factor in any rate decisions. 

"The Fed is unlikely to make moves until it sees significant weakness in employment rates," says Debbie Calixto, sales manager at mortgage lender loanDepot. 

With a healthy job market, she highlights that expectations for Fed rate cuts this year have narrowed to only two potential cuts — likely in September and December.

Inflation presents another wildcard. Arjun Dhingra, a licensed mortgage banker in charge of sales and business development at All Western Mortgage, argues that this ultimately drives mortgage rates. 

"If inflation [cools], then mortgage rates will trend lower," Dhingra says. "We saw this happen earlier this year … [they hit] a 15-month low with no Fed cut at all."

The consensus is that rates will likely stay in the mid-to-upper 6% range through mid-2025, regardless of Fed actions.

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Why experts advocate for buying a home now if you're ready

While waiting for lower mortgage rates seems logical, mortgage professionals argue it could be smart to buy now if you're financially ready.

"[Homebuying] is like making any investment decision," says Jeff Taylor, a board member of the Mortgage Bankers Association and managing director at Mphasis Digital Risk. "It depends on your time horizon, budget and risk tolerance." 

That said, the current real estate market presents unique opportunities that could disappear when rates drop and competition heats up. Here are a few reasons you might consider securing a home today, even with elevated mortgage rates:

Less competition means better negotiating power

"Bidding wars aren't as prevalent [now], so asking for concessions, credits or price reductions is more common in this market," says Dhingra. 

Unlike the 2021 to 2022 frenzy, buyers today have a better shot at negotiating with sellers and getting help with closing costs.

Today's rates aren't historically high

"Since the 1970s, the average 30-year fixed rate has been about 7.8%," Glick says. 

While 6.8% feels high compared to pandemic-era lows, those sub-3% rates were a "once-in-a-lifetime anomaly," he emphasizes.

Refinancing later is always an option

"Forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association suggest rates could dip to 6.2% or 5.5% by late 2025 or 2026," explains Glick. 

If that happens, you can refinance to lower your monthly payment without losing the home you bought.

Home prices may continue rising

Calixto notes that current forecasts estimate home values could rise nearly 5% over the next year. This means putting off your purchase could cost you more than potential mortgage rate savings. If your budget can accommodate current rates, buying now means building equity while home prices climb.

Homeownership comes with perks

"Owning means stability — no rent hikes or landlord surprises," Glick says. 

Beyond financial benefits, homeownership provides predictable housing costs and the freedom to customize your space without worrying about lease restrictions.

The bottom line

"Forget about market speculation [because] interest rates are cyclical and will continue to rise and fall," advises Calixto. "The best time to move forward with a home loan is when it aligns with your financial readiness and short- and long-term goals." 

Ready to buy a home? Speak with several lenders to compare rates and discuss your options, including rate lock periods and potential float-down options. Remember to factor in all homeownership costs — not just your mortgage rate — when determining what you can comfortably afford.